Demographic shocks and sustainable development in Romania

Cornelia Muresan, Université Babes-Bolyai

The age-structural transition is a consequence and at the same time a component of the demographic transition. Between two major demographic problems viewed in general as “malus”, the excessive population grow and ageing societies, there are one or more demographic “bonus” periods. The demographic windows that are opened for Romanian population are difficult to transform in “bonus” periods because of the numerous turbulences in the age pyramid. The paper analyzes the nature and the process of age-structural transition in Romania, with the help of data from the past and indicators that were obtained in three projection variants for the 2002-2005 period. In the near or further future different development mechanisms are possible depending on the growth of weights of different functional age groups. They may generate demographic “bonus” for the sustainable development, but everything depends on the turbulences degree and the implemented public policies.

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Presented in Poster Session 4