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The impact of population ageing on the social security system of Brazil

Fernanda Peyneau, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
Sonoe Sugahara, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
João Luiz Mendonça, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)

Population ageing is now a concern of developing countries. Bearing this in mind, the primary aim of this paper is to analyze the new Brazilian demographic pattern, watchful of how this population profile has influenced the social security system and, consequently, the financial result of the government. Changes in the structure of the Brazilian population take place in a different spatial form and among different social segments. Thus, the transformations will be analyzed for the population disaggregated by color/race, sex, income and schooling. The paper will discuss some conceptual aspects of the organization of the SSS. Subsequently, some forecasts will be presented, altering fertility and mortality rates and maintaining the remaining variables of the SSS constant. Such projections will be made based on the Demographic-Actuarial Model of Projections and Simulations, developed beforehand by the authors, using data from the Census (IBGE) and from the Social Security Statistical Yearbook (MPAS).

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Presented in Poster Session 4: Poster Session 4