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Impact of population pressure on armed conflict in developing countries

Jeroen van Ginneken, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Margreet Wiegers, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute

The first part deals with an analysis of the theory on impact of population increase on the environment and health (Malthusian theory). This leads to a somewhat changed formulation of the theory with more emphasis on the concept of population pressure as well as on the concepts of tensions, conflicts and violence. This leads, in the second part, to specification of operational definitions of both population pressure and violent or armed conflicts. The third part consists of an empirical analysis of the relationship of (an index) of population pressure(in 1970-1990) with incidence of armed conflicts (in 1990-2002) using various sources of data in 91 LDCs. Results show that there is a statistically significant relationship between population pressure and armed conflicts. However, this relationship becomes smaller and statistically insignificant when controlled for gross national income. Conclusions are drawn in the fourth and final part.

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Presented in Poster Session 3: Poster Session 3