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Vulnerability and resilience: determinants of under-five mortality changes in Zambia

Eneas Gakusi, African Development Bank Group

The Zambian case study shows that a serious shock such as a decline in real income by about 30% in a period of 17 years (1975-1992) had serious consequences on most economic and social indicators, and lead to increasing under-five mortality. This can be explained by changes in the real value of the state budget spent on health. However, the social system appears resilient in the long run, and coping mechanisms were obviously found in Zambia, since the continuing decline in GDP-PPP did not impede a resumption of under-five mortality decline after 1992, despite a significant impact of HIV/AIDS.

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Presented in Session 67: The demography of Africa