Stochastic simulation of consistent population parameters for Germany

Frank Betz, University of Mannheim
Oliver Lipps, Swiss Household Panel

This paper presents a stochastic projection of the German population, using recently developed models. This is not straightforward, since reunification in 1990 creates a structural break in the East German time series. A common and consistent time series for West and East Germany as a whole does therefore not exist. It is shown that since unification East German population parameters have converged to West German levels and that this adaptation process of considered to be almost completed by now. Consequently, German population parameters can be modelled using only West German historic patterns, whereas the start-off population is of entire Germany.

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Presented in Session 84: Stochastic projection of demographic parameters